Lapp, Christian, Maximilian Mrotzek, Günther Ossimitz, Christiane Perdacher, Karin Wieser (2007): The Limits of Technological Disaster Prevention Measures and Possible Methods Beyond. Proceedings of the PACON-Pacific Conference, Hawaii, USA, 06/2007
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Abstract
Based on the distinction between technological and selforganizing systems we assess the abilities and limits of disaster prevention by means of technological measures on a generic level. It is shown that technological measures do not have a capacity to function beyond the limits they were created for, whereas selforganizing systems actually develop their capabilities beyond that level. The social feedback from the perception of risk via disaster prevention and the induced loss of information about risk, leading to a higher societal vulnerability is also discussed. With a generic model of flooding in a region consisting of a narrow valley merging into a broader landscape we can show different behavior in this upstream-downstream conflict situation that is prone to shifting-the-burden behavior. Two scenarios are shown: one, more technologically oriented, leading to shifting-the-burden from upstream to downstream and prone to disastrous behavior in eventually both areas, and a second, utilizing and enhancing natural capabilities of selforganization to hold back water in upstream areas.
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